Lillestrom 3-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Åråsen Stadion to face Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Lillestrom (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Lillestrom, 1.10 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Lillestrom 0W, Ham-Kam 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 52% and Ham-Kam 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 55% | Ham-Kam 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.35 xG and Ham-Kam 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.749 / defence 0.904 | Ham-Kam attack 0.708 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.466. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Lillestrom games / 29 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 46% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 26%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Ham-Kam 3.85. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lillestrom 50% | Ham-Kam 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 46% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Lillestrom 1.35 / Ham-Kam 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.749 / def 0.904 | Ham-Kam attack 0.708 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ham-Kam xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Lillestrom 3 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam part of?
Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 46% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lillestrom and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Ham-Kam in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (0.75) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.71x) against Lillestrom's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.62
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.29
0.94
Ham-Kam xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.94 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 15W 5D 9L from 29 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 6W 13D 10L across 29 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 8W 2D 4L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 2W 7D 5L across 14 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.10 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 15W 5D 9L in their last 29 games (1.72 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 10L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Ham-Kam away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.86 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ham-Kam have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 5-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
3
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Ham-Kam?
From 7 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-0 Lillestrom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 36%, Ham-Kam 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Lillestrom) and 57% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Lillestrom's games and 79% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Lillestrom's recent games and 57% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Ham-Kam 3-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.35 xG and Ham-Kam 0.94 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.75 / defence 0.90 against Ham-Kam attack 0.71 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 46% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 26%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 55%, Ham-Kam 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.