ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Rosenborg travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Skagerak Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ODD Ballklubb 1.40 PPG, Rosenborg 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 1 for Rosenborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 57% versus Rosenborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 64% | Rosenborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.78 xG and Rosenborg 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.100 / defence 1.159 | Rosenborg attack 1.145 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Data: 44 ODD Ballklubb games / 44 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 41% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 31%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 41% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.78 / Rosenborg 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.100 / def 1.159 | Rosenborg attack 1.145 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Rosenborg xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 41% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Record (3 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.10x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.64
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.33
1.55
Rosenborg xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.43
5%
18.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.55 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 18W 8D 18L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 21W 11D 12L from 44 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.41 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 7W 7D 7L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.73 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 18W 8D 18L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 21W 11D 12L in their last 44 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Rosenborg away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.76 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
7
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Rosenborg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 67%, Rosenborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for ODD Ballklubb and 62% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 57% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 17, as ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.78 xG and Rosenborg 1.55 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.10 / defence 1.16 against Rosenborg attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 41% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 31%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 64%, Rosenborg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.41 PPG, Rosenborg 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.