Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 45%, yet in-form Haugesund provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Haugesund travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Haugesund are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.69 xG and Haugesund 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.932 / defence 0.957 | Haugesund attack 1.024 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.304. Data: 30 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 30 Haugesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 45% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 27%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Haugesund 3.70. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haugesund (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 45% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.69 / Haugesund 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.932 / def 0.957 | Haugesund attack 1.024 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Haugesund xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 45% chance of winning, Haugesund a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.93) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.54
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.97
1.28
Haugesund xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
5%
20.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.28 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 8W 8D 14L from 30 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 13L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.07 PPG, Haugesund on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 6W 3D 6L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Haugesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Haugesund have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 60% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games; Haugesund in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 60% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 60% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund finished level at 0-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.69 xG and Haugesund 1.28 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Haugesund attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 45% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 27%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.