Stabaek 1-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stabaek face Rosenborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stabaek's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Rosenborg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 May 2021, ended Stabaek 2–4 Rosenborg — a Rosenborg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 53% versus Rosenborg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 62% | Rosenborg 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stabaek surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Rosenborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.33 xG and Rosenborg 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.794 / defence 1.169 | Rosenborg attack 1.010 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.230. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Data: built from Stabaek's last 58 games and Rosenborg's last 58.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 31% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.18 | Draw 3.18 | Rosenborg 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 50% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 29 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 31% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Stabaek 1.33 / Rosenborg 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.794 / def 1.169 | Rosenborg attack 1.010 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Rosenborg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Stabaek 1 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Stabaek vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Rosenborg part of?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 29) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 31% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stabaek and Rosenborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stabaek vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.01x) against Stabaek's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 58 games and Rosenborg's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.18
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.78
1.45
Rosenborg xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.45 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 15W 19D 24L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Rosenborg's form line: 27W 15D 16L from 58 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 29 home games (9W 9D 11L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 9W 9D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.78 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 60%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
Stabaek (Home) vs Rosenborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 15W 19D 24L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 15D 16L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Rosenborg away?
Stabaek's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.24 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won Stabaek 0-3 Rosenborg on 5 Jul 2020, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
3
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 0, Rosenborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Rosenborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 October 2023: Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 41%, Rosenborg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Stabaek) and 62% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 38% of games; Rosenborg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Rosenborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stabaek's recent matches and 59% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stabaek and Rosenborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Stabaek's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Stabaek and Rosenborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Stabaek's recent matches and 76% of Rosenborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stabaek 1-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.33 xG and Rosenborg 1.45 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Rosenborg attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 31% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 37%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 62%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.