Tromso 0-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tromso and Stabaek meet at Alfheim Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Tromso's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tromso's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stabaek have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Stabaek have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Tromso's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Stabaek's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Tromso's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) — Tromso have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stabaek in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Tromso, 0 for Stabaek and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Jun 2021, ended Tromso 3–0 Stabaek — a Tromso win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Tromso half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 59% versus Stabaek 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 48% | Stabaek 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.70 xG and Stabaek 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.751 / defence 1.008 | Stabaek attack 1.022 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Tromso's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.70. Stabaek's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tromso's projected output up. Data: built from Tromso's last 27 games and Stabaek's last 57.
Result probabilities: Tromso 45% | Draw 29% | Stabaek 26%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.22 | Draw 3.41 | Stabaek 3.90. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tromso at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tromso's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tromso 60% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 28 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 45% | Draw 29% | Stabaek 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Tromso 1.70 / Stabaek 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.751 / def 1.008 | Stabaek attack 1.022 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Tromso (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Stabaek xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Stabaek kick off?
Tromso vs Stabaek kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Stabaek?
Tromso 0 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is Tromso vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Stabaek part of?
Tromso vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 28) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 45% chance of winning, Stabaek a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Tromso and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.75) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.02x) against Tromso's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 27 games and Stabaek's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.41
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.97
1.26
Stabaek xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
21.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Tromso and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Tromso and 1.26 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso's recent record stands at 7W 10D 10L from 27 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 15L across 27 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Tromso against 0.89 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 3W 5D 5L from their last 13 home games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 2W 3D 8L across their last 13 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.22 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
Tromso (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 7W 10D 10L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 6W 6D 15L in their last 27 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Stabaek away?
Tromso's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.08 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Tromso and Stabaek, the earliest from June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 30 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tromso have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won Stabaek 0-3 Tromso on 14 Jun 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Tromso
1
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Stabaek?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 3, Stabaek have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tromso and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 September 2023: Stabaek 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Stabaek?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Tromso, 77% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for Tromso and 85% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Stabaek matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Tromso's games and 77% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tromso and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Tromso's matches and 85% of Stabaek's.
Do Tromso and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Tromso's recent matches and 85% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.70 xG and Stabaek 1.26 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Stabaek attack 1.02 / defence 1.26, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 45% | Draw 29% | Stabaek 26%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 48%, Stabaek 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Stabaek's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.15 PPG, Stabaek 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.