Rosenborg 0-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 61% and Bodo/Glimt 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 68% | Bodo/Glimt 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.46 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.222 / defence 1.136 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.314 / defence 0.664. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.664 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Rosenborg games / 57 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 28% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 44%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Bodo/Glimt 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 28% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Rosenborg 1.46 / Bodo/Glimt 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.222 / def 1.136 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.314 / def 0.664 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Bodo/Glimt xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Rosenborg 0 - 0 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 28% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.22) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.31x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
28%
3.51
28%
3.62
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.29
1.83
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
5%
21.86
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.83 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 27W 14D 16L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 43W 10D 4L from 57 games, 2.44 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rosenborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.11 PPG from 28 outings (18W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 18W 7D 3L from 28 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.75 scored and 0.96 conceded. Rosenborg's scoring rate against Bodo/Glimt's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 16L in their last 57 games (1.67 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 43W 10D 4L in their last 57 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.11 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
5
Draws
3
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Rosenborg, 68% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Rosenborg and 71% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Rosenborg's games and 68% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Rosenborg's matches and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.46 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.83 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.22 / defence 1.14 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.31 / defence 0.66, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 28% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 44%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, Bodo/Glimt 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.