Valerenga vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Intility Arena plays host to Valerenga versus Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valerenga have posted 5W 5D 0L at Intility Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Valerenga, 1.20 for Stromsgodset — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Valerenga, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Stromsgodset — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with Valerenga winning.
The historical record gives Valerenga a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Valerenga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 68% and Stromsgodset 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 54% | Stromsgodset 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.78 xG and Stromsgodset 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.996 / defence 0.803 | Stromsgodset attack 0.650 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.228. Data: 56 Valerenga games / 56 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 63% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 11%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.59 | Draw 3.70 | Stromsgodset 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (63%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Valerenga 80% | Stromsgodset 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 63% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Valerenga 1.78 / Stromsgodset 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.996 / def 0.803 | Stromsgodset attack 0.650 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Stromsgodset xG
41%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Valerenga vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Stromsgodset part of?
Valerenga vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 63% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 11% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Valerenga and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stromsgodset?
Record (4 meetings): Valerenga 3W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Stromsgodset in?
Valerenga (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.65x) against Valerenga's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
63%
1.60
27%
3.77
11%
9.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.42
0.64
Stromsgodset xG
1.60
63%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
9.25
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
2%
54.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Valerenga and 0.64 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valerenga's recent record stands at 24W 21D 11L from 56 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 23L across 56 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 16W 11D 1L from 28 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 5W 8D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.43 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 24W 21D 11L in their last 56 games (1.66 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 16W 17D 23L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Stromsgodset away?
Valerenga's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.11 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Valerenga
1
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Valerenga 2-1 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Stromsgodset?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 75%, Stromsgodset 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Valerenga) and 57% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Valerenga's games and 54% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Valerenga's matches and 57% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Valerenga and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Valerenga and Stromsgodset drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.78 xG and Stromsgodset 0.64 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.00 / defence 0.80 against Stromsgodset attack 0.65 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 63% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 11%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 63%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 54%, Stromsgodset 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.