Valerenga 2-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Valerenga (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Valerenga face Mjondalen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valerenga and Mjondalen meet at Intility Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjondalen (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjondalen's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Valerenga. A 0.70 PPG lead over Mjondalen (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Valerenga register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Mjondalen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Valerenga, 0 for Mjondalen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 69% and Mjondalen 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Mjondalen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.98 xG and Mjondalen 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.966 / defence 0.824 | Mjondalen attack 0.859 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.230. Data: 58 Valerenga games / 58 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 61% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 13%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Mjondalen 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 80% | Mjondalen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 61% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Valerenga 1.98 / Mjondalen 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.966 / def 0.824 | Mjondalen attack 0.859 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Mjondalen xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Mjondalen kick off?
Valerenga vs Mjondalen kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Valerenga 2 - 0 Mjondalen.
Where is Valerenga vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Mjondalen part of?
Valerenga vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 61% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Valerenga and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): Valerenga 2W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Mjondalen in?
Valerenga (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.86x) against Valerenga's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.84
13%
7.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.85
0.87
Mjondalen xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
7.55
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
54.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Valerenga and 0.87 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 25W 22D 11L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Mjondalen's form line: 13W 12D 33L from 58 games, 0.88 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 2.11 PPG from 28 outings (16W 11D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 4W 7D 17L from 28 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.07 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Mjondalen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 25W 22D 11L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 13W 12D 33L in their last 58 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Mjondalen away?
Valerenga's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.11 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-1 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Valerenga
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Valerenga 2-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Mjondalen?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Valerenga, 57% for Mjondalen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Valerenga) and 50% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Valerenga's games and 57% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Valerenga's recent games and 50% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valerenga and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Mjondalen 2-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.98 xG and Mjondalen 0.87 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mjondalen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Mjondalen attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 61% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 13%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Mjondalen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.