ODD Ballklubb 3-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as ODD Ballklubb face Stabaek.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
ODD Ballklubb welcome Stabaek to Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 12 December 2021 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Stabaek have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — ODD Ballklubb at 0.70 PPG versus Stabaek's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 0 for Stabaek and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2021, ended ODD Ballklubb 2–2 Stabaek — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Stabaek trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 61% versus Stabaek 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 64% | Stabaek 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.08 xG and Stabaek 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.021 / defence 1.542 | Stabaek attack 0.916 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.261. ODD Ballklubb's defence rating of 1.542 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stabaek's projected output up. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 59 games and Stabaek's last 59.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 32%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.30 | Draw 4.05 | Stabaek 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.78) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 90% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 30 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.08 / Stabaek 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.021 / def 1.542 | Stabaek attack 0.916 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Stabaek xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
ODD Ballklubb 3 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 30) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 44% chance of winning, Stabaek a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ODD Ballklubb's last 59 games and Stabaek's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
44%
2.30
25%
4.05
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.87
1.78
Stabaek xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.95
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
4%
25.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.78 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 13D 26L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.08 PPG from 59 outings (15W 19D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.24 PPG, Stabaek on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 12W 6D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 29 away games (6W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.27 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 13D 26L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 15W 19D 25L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stabaek away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.45 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 6 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2023, when ODD Ballklubb won ODD Ballklubb 4-0 Stabaek.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Stabaek have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 August 2023: ODD Ballklubb 4-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 72%, Stabaek at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for ODD Ballklubb and 72% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 66% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 72% of Stabaek's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 79% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Stabaek 3-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.08 xG and Stabaek 1.78 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.02 / defence 1.54 against Stabaek attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 32%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 64%, Stabaek 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.24 PPG, Stabaek 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.