Rosenborg 2-2 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Stromsgodset travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rosenborg, 1 for Stromsgodset and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 61% versus Stromsgodset 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 68% | Stromsgodset 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.33 xG and Stromsgodset 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.156 / defence 0.981 | Stromsgodset attack 0.691 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.261. Data: 59 Rosenborg games / 59 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 68% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 10%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Stromsgodset 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 50% | Stromsgodset 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 68% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 54% | xG Rosenborg 2.33 / Stromsgodset 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.156 / def 0.981 | Stromsgodset attack 0.691 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Stromsgodset xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg 2 - 2 Stromsgodset.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset part of?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 68% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rosenborg and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.16) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
68%
1.46
22%
4.63
10%
9.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.18
0.86
Stromsgodset xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
9.88
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
10%
10.24
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
1%
101.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.86 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 28W 15D 16L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 16W 18D 25L from 59 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.07 PPG from 29 outings (18W 6D 5L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 8D 16L from 29 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.39 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 16W 18D 25L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stromsgodset away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 62%, Stromsgodset 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Rosenborg and 59% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rosenborg's games and 55% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Rosenborg's matches and 59% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Rosenborg and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Stromsgodset share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Rosenborg and Stromsgodset drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.33 xG and Stromsgodset 0.86 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Stromsgodset attack 0.69 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 68% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 10%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, Stromsgodset 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.