Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Sarpsborg 08 FF take on Mjondalen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF host Mjondalen at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 21 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record at Sarpsborg Stadion: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sarpsborg 08 FF at 1.10 PPG versus Mjondalen's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Mjondalen and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2020, ended 2–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mjondalen trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% versus Mjondalen 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.704 / defence 0.902 | Mjondalen attack 0.947 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.129. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 41 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 34% | Draw 36% | Mjondalen 29%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Mjondalen 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Mjondalen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 34% | Draw 36% | Mjondalen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 / Mjondalen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.704 / def 0.902 | Mjondalen attack 0.947 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Mjondalen xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 21 July 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 34% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.70) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.90
36%
2.75
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.03
0.96
Mjondalen xG
2.90
34%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.96 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 11W 12D 19L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen's form line: 11W 8D 23L from 42 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.07 PPG, Mjondalen on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 3W 5D 13L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 8D 23L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Mjondalen away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.29 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
1
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Mjondalen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2021, when Mjondalen 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, Mjondalen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 43% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 38% of games; Mjondalen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 52% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 43% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.70 / defence 0.90 against Mjondalen attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 34% | Draw 36% | Mjondalen 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjondalen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG, Mjondalen 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.