Haugesund vs Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 1 as Haugesund welcome Tromso to Haugesund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 5W 2D 3L at Haugesund Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.95 xG and Tromso 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.942 / defence 1.095 | Tromso attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Haugesund games / 0 Tromso games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 52% | Draw 24% | Tromso 23%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Tromso 4.35. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 5 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 52% | Draw 24% | Tromso 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Haugesund 1.95 / Tromso 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.942 / def 1.095 | Tromso attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Tromso xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Tromso kick off?
Haugesund vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 5 April 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Tromso part of?
Haugesund vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 52% chance of winning, Tromso a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Haugesund and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Haugesund home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.13
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.20
1.26
Tromso xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
3%
29.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.26 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Pre-Season
Tromso
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Tromso runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
1
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Tromso have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Haugesund and Tromso drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.95 xG and Tromso 1.26 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Tromso attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 52% | Draw 24% | Tromso 23%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.