Mjondalen 1-2 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 2 as Mjondalen welcome Stabaek to Consto Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Consto Arena, Mjondalen have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Consto Arena. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mjondalen are significantly better at Consto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Mjondalen) versus 0.40 (Stabaek). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mjondalen, 1 for Stabaek and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2020, ended 0–1 with Stabaek winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 48% versus Stabaek 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 43% | Stabaek 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.66 xG and Stabaek 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.866 / defence 0.888 | Stabaek attack 1.160 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.143. Data: 42 Mjondalen games / 42 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 46% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Stabaek 4.17. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 40% | Stabaek 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 46% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Mjondalen 1.66 / Stabaek 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.866 / def 0.888 | Stabaek attack 1.160 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Stabaek xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Stabaek kick off?
Mjondalen vs Stabaek kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Mjondalen 1 - 2 Stabaek.
Where is Mjondalen vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Stabaek part of?
Mjondalen vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 46% chance of winning, Stabaek a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mjondalen and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stabaek?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Stabaek in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Stabaek (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.87x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.35
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.84
1.18
Stabaek xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
5%
21.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.18 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjondalen come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 8D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.07 PPG from 42 outings (10W 15D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjondalen on 0.98 PPG, Stabaek on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mjondalen's home form reads 8W 3D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.31 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 11W 8D 23L in their last 42 games (0.98 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 10W 15D 17L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Stabaek away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.29 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Mjondalen's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
2
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Stabaek have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2021, when Stabaek 1-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 38%, Stabaek 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Mjondalen) and 71% (Stabaek). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 67% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Mjondalen's matches and 71% of Stabaek's.
Do Mjondalen and Stabaek tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stabaek defy the odds to beat Mjondalen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Mjondalen 1-2 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.66 xG and Stabaek 1.18 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.87 / defence 0.89 against Stabaek attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 46% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 24%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Stabaek win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, Stabaek 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.98 PPG, Stabaek 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Mjondalen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stabaek (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.