Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Sarpsborg 08 FF take on Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 17 July 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 4D 4L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% versus Bodo/Glimt 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% | Bodo/Glimt 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.76 xG and Bodo/Glimt 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.611 / defence 0.799 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.969 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.125. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 43 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% | Draw 39% | Bodo/Glimt 33%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.70 | Draw 2.56 | Bodo/Glimt 3.03. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Sarpsborg 08 FF's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Bodo/Glimt 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% | Draw 39% | Bodo/Glimt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.76 / Bodo/Glimt 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.611 / def 0.799 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.969 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bodo/Glimt xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 27% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 33% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.61x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (0.97x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 41/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.67
39%
2.54
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
1.63
0.87
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.67
27%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 17.0 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.87 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 11D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.41 PPG from 41 outings (31W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.11 points per game from 19 outings (12W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.93 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 61%.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 6D 4L in their last 41 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.37 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 32%, Bodo/Glimt 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 74% (Bodo/Glimt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Bodo/Glimt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 68% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 74% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 2-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.76 xG and Bodo/Glimt 0.87 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.61 / defence 0.80 against Bodo/Glimt attack 0.97 / defence 0.74, drawn from 41/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% | Draw 39% | Bodo/Glimt 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, Bodo/Glimt 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.