Bodo/Glimt vs Brann – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 5 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Brann have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.20 PPG lead over Brann (2.50 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bodo/Glimt lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2020, ended 3–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Brann — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Brann 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.56 xG and Brann 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.396 / defence 0.881 | Brann attack 0.997 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.349. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Bodo/Glimt games / 30 Brann games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 66% | Draw 19% | Brann 15%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Brann 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 5 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 66% | Draw 19% | Brann 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 65% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.56 / Brann 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.396 / def 0.881 | Brann attack 0.997 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Brann xG
65%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 5 April 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 66% chance of winning, Brann a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
Record (1 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 0 | Brann 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Brann in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.40) and Brann's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.00x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.33
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.75
1.19
Brann xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
8%
12.96
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
1%
86.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.19 for Brann, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.70 PPG on a 26W 3D 1L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 3.00 PPG from 15 outings (15W 0D 0L).
On the road, Brann have gone 5W 4D 6L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Brann in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Brann in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 games (2.70 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Brann away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Brann away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Brann in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-1 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
2
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, Brann have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 87% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bodo/Glimt and 53% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Brann in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 53% of Brann's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Brann tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brann in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Bodo/Glimt and Brann drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.56 xG and Brann 1.19 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Brann landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.40 / defence 0.88 against Brann attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 66% | Draw 19% | Brann 15%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Brann 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.