Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 1 as Kristiansund BK welcome Lillestrom to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kristiansund BK at Kristiansund Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.15 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.043 / defence 1.095 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Kristiansund BK games / 0 Lillestrom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 57% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 21%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Lillestrom 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 5 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 57% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.15 / Lillestrom 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.043 / def 1.095 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lillestrom xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 5 April 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 57% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Kristiansund BK home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.46
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.41
1.26
Lillestrom xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
2%
41.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.26 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
2
Draws
1
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
From 7 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Lillestrom have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.15 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.04 / defence 1.09 against Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 57% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 21%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.