Mjondalen vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjondalen and Sandefjord meet at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 5 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Mjondalen (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjondalen at Consto Arena this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sandefjord away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.20 for Sandefjord. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjondalen lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2020, ended 0–2 with Sandefjord winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 40% versus Sandefjord 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 43% | Sandefjord 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.46 xG and Sandefjord 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.904 / defence 0.924 | Sandefjord attack 0.961 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Mjondalen games / 30 Sandefjord games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 42% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 30%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Sandefjord 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mjondalen 30% | Sandefjord 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Monday 5 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 42% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Mjondalen 1.46 / Sandefjord 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.904 / def 0.924 | Sandefjord attack 0.961 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sandefjord xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Sandefjord kick off?
Mjondalen vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 5 April 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Sandefjord part of?
Mjondalen vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 42% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mjondalen and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sandefjord?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and Sandefjord in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.96x) against Mjondalen's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.51
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.66
1.20
Sandefjord xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.20 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 2D 19L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sandefjord's form line: 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.17 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (6W 0D 9L).
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 6W 1D 8L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Sandefjord away?
Sandefjord's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.20 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Mjondalen or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 0-3 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjondalen
1
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sandefjord?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 1, Sandefjord have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mjondalen) and 53% (Sandefjord).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord in 33%; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 53% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mjondalen's recent games and 53% of Sandefjord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Sandefjord finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.46 xG and Sandefjord 1.20 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Sandefjord attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 42% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 30%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, Sandefjord 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.97 PPG, Sandefjord 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.