Haugesund 2-2 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Sparebank Arena plays host to Haugesund versus ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Haugesund 1W, ODD Ballklubb 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2022, ended 4–0 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 60% versus ODD Ballklubb 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 62% | ODD Ballklubb 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.71 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.980 / defence 0.951 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.852 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.384. Data: 53 Haugesund games / 53 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 51% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 25%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | ODD Ballklubb 4.00. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | ODD Ballklubb 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 51% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Haugesund 1.71 / ODD Ballklubb 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.980 / def 0.951 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.852 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Haugesund 2 - 2 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 51% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (5 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 2 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.85x) against Haugesund's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.18
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.83
1.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
5%
22.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.12 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund come into this having played 53 games, going 17W 13D 23L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.25 PPG from 53 outings (18W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Haugesund against 1.25 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Haugesund's home form reads 14W 4D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.12 points per game from 26 outings (7W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.36 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 games (1.21 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Haugesund's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.77 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Haugesund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 0-4 on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
4
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 65%, ODD Ballklubb 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Haugesund and 50% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Haugesund's games and 46% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Haugesund's matches and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.71 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.12 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 51% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 25%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 62%, ODD Ballklubb 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.21 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.