Bodo/Glimt vs Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Molde make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Molde have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.50 for Bodo/Glimt, 2.50 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Molde 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Molde 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.36 xG and Molde 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.372 / defence 0.888 | Molde attack 1.174 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Bodo/Glimt games / 30 Molde games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 58% | Draw 21% | Molde 21%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Molde 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Molde 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 58% | Draw 21% | Molde 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.36 / Molde 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.372 / def 0.888 | Molde attack 1.174 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Molde xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Molde kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 14 April 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Molde part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Molde is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 58% chance of winning, Molde a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Molde?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Molde in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Molde (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.37x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.17x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.77
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.77
1.41
Molde xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
9%
10.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
2%
49.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.41 for Molde, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Molde?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.70 PPG on a 26W 3D 1L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Molde's form line: 20W 2D 8L from 30 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Molde.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 3.00 PPG from 15 outings (15W 0D 0L).
On the road, Molde have gone 8W 1D 6L from 15 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.57 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Molde in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Molde in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 games (2.70 PPG), while Molde have gone 20W 2D 8L in their last 30 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Molde away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Molde away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Molde in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 1-4 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bodo/Glimt
4
Draws
3
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, Molde have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 0-1 Molde.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 87% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Bodo/Glimt, 80% for Molde — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bodo/Glimt and 100% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 80% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 100% of Molde's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Molde tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Molde in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Molde finished level at 0-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.36 xG and Molde 1.41 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.37 / defence 0.89 against Molde attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 58% | Draw 21% | Molde 21%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 90% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Molde 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 2.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.