Valerenga vs Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valerenga host Viking at Intility Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 14 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Valerenga's home record at Intility Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Viking have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Valerenga carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Valerenga register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Viking in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Valerenga have won 0, Viking 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valerenga in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Viking in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 63% and Viking 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.98 xG and Viking 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.071 / defence 0.879 | Viking attack 0.999 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Valerenga games / 30 Viking games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 55% | Draw 24% | Viking 21%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Viking 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 55% | Draw 24% | Viking 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Valerenga 1.98 / Viking 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.071 / def 0.879 | Viking attack 0.999 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Viking xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Viking kick off?
Valerenga vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 14 April 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Viking part of?
Valerenga vs Viking is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 55% chance of winning, Viking a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Valerenga and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Viking?
Record (1 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 1 | Viking 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Viking in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (1.07) and Viking's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.19
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.17
1.19
Viking xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
3%
33.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.19 for Viking, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 10D 5L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.83 PPG, Viking on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Valerenga's home form reads 10W 5D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Viking in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Viking in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Viking away?
Valerenga's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.33 PPG; Viking away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Viking in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Viking runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Viking specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valerenga
3
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 3, Viking have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Valerenga 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 67%, Viking 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Valerenga and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Viking in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valerenga's games and 53% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Valerenga and Viking tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 3, as Valerenga and Viking drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.98 xG and Viking 1.19 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Viking attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 55% | Draw 24% | Viking 21%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Viking 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.83 PPG, Viking 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.