Mjondalen vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Lillestrom at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 14 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 5W 0D 5L at Consto Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.88 xG and Lillestrom 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.910 / defence 0.929 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Mjondalen games / 0 Lillestrom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 55% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 20%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Lillestrom 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Mjondalen (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 55% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Mjondalen 1.88 / Lillestrom 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.910 / def 0.929 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lillestrom xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Lillestrom kick off?
Mjondalen vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 14 April 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Lillestrom part of?
Mjondalen vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 55% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mjondalen and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and Lillestrom in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Mjondalen home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.05
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.94
1.06
Lillestrom xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
3%
32.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.06 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Lillestrom runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Lillestrom?
From 2 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Lillestrom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2021, when Mjondalen 1-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.88 xG and Lillestrom 1.06 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 55% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 20%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.