Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43%, yet in-form Valerenga provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Valerenga travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Valerenga's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0 for Valerenga and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valerenga trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% versus Valerenga 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.56 xG and Valerenga 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.932 / defence 0.945 | Valerenga attack 0.998 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 30 Valerenga games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 30%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Valerenga 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valerenga (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.56 / Valerenga 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.932 / def 0.945 | Valerenga attack 0.998 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Valerenga xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance of winning, Valerenga a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.93) and Valerenga's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.66
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.83
1.27
Valerenga xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.27 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 8D 14L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Valerenga's form line: 15W 10D 5L from 30 games, 1.83 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 5W 5D 5L from 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.70 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Valerenga away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valerenga in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valerenga have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Valerenga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Valerenga have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, Valerenga 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 47% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Valerenga in 33%; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 60% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 47% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.56 xG and Valerenga 1.27 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Valerenga attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 30%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.