Sandefjord vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Stabaek at Sandefjord Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 3W 4D 3L at Sandefjord Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sandefjord are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sandefjord have won 1, Stabaek 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with Sandefjord winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Stabaek in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 48% versus Stabaek 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 52% | Stabaek 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.49 xG and Stabaek 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.800 / defence 0.926 | Stabaek attack 1.129 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.242. Data: 44 Sandefjord games / 44 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 39% | Draw 31% | Stabaek 30%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Stabaek 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Stabaek 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 39% | Draw 31% | Stabaek 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Sandefjord 1.49 / Stabaek 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.800 / def 0.926 | Stabaek attack 1.129 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Stabaek xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Stabaek kick off?
Sandefjord vs Stabaek kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Stabaek part of?
Sandefjord vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 39% chance of winning, Stabaek a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandefjord and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Stabaek in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.22
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.78
1.30
Stabaek xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.30 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 15W 10D 19L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 12W 15D 17L from 44 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.25 PPG, Stabaek on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (6W 8D 8L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 5W 8D 9L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.36 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Stabaek away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.18 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stabaek in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Stabaek won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
3
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Stabaek have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Stabaek 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 41%, Stabaek 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sandefjord) and 73% (Stabaek). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 68% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Stabaek's.
Do Sandefjord and Stabaek tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Sandefjord and Stabaek drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.49 xG and Stabaek 1.30 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.80 / defence 0.93 against Stabaek attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 39% | Draw 31% | Stabaek 30%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 52%, Stabaek 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.25 PPG, Stabaek 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.