Sandefjord 1-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Release Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Wednesday 21 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandefjord have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Release Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Release Arena.
Haugesund (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.70 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 44% versus Haugesund 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 54% | Haugesund 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.44 xG and Haugesund 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.895 / defence 0.962 | Haugesund attack 0.689 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.129. Data: 41 Sandefjord games / 41 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 51% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 17%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Haugesund 5.88. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 40% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 51% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Sandefjord 1.44 / Haugesund 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.895 / def 0.962 | Haugesund attack 0.689 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Haugesund xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Haugesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 21 July 2021 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Sandefjord 1 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Sandefjord vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Haugesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 51% chance of winning, Haugesund a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sandefjord and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.90) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.69x) against Sandefjord's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
51%
1.97
32%
3.10
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.19
0.75
Haugesund xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
4%
24.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.75 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 8D 19L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.39 PPG from 41 outings (16W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.39 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.32 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 14W 8D 19L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Haugesund away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.20 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Haugesund in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 35%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sandefjord) and 55% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 40% of games; Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 50% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sandefjord's recent games and 55% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Haugesund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Release Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Sandefjord and Haugesund drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.44 xG and Haugesund 0.75 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Haugesund attack 0.69 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 51% | Draw 32% | Haugesund 17%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 54%, Haugesund 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.22 PPG, Haugesund 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.