Haugesund 2-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Haugesund and Stromsgodset meet at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Haugesund (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Haugesund — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 50% versus Stromsgodset 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 57% | Stromsgodset 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.49 xG and Stromsgodset 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.201 / defence 0.762 | Stromsgodset attack 0.860 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.143. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Haugesund's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Haugesund games / 43 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 74% | Draw 19% | Stromsgodset 7%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.35 | Draw 5.26 | Stromsgodset 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (74%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 40% | Stromsgodset 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 74% | Draw 19% | Stromsgodset 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 50% | xG Haugesund 2.49 / Stromsgodset 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.201 / def 0.762 | Stromsgodset attack 0.860 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Stromsgodset xG
50%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Haugesund 2 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset part of?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 74% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 7% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Haugesund and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (1.20) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.86x) against Haugesund's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
74%
1.36
19%
5.27
7%
13.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.24
0.75
Stromsgodset xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
13.62
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
1%
164.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.75 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 16W 10D 16L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 12W 13D 17L from 42 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Haugesund against 1.17 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (11W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.40 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 12W 13D 17L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Stromsgodset away?
Haugesund's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.85 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stromsgodset have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-5 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
2
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 45%, Stromsgodset 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 65% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Haugesund's recent matches and 60% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 65% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Haugesund and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haugesund edge out Stromsgodset 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Stromsgodset 2-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.49 xG and Stromsgodset 0.75 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.20 / defence 0.76 against Stromsgodset attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 74% | Draw 19% | Stromsgodset 7%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 57%, Stromsgodset 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.38 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.