Haugesund 3-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Stadion plays host to Haugesund versus Valerenga in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 18 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Haugesund Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Valerenga (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Haugesund, 1.70 for Valerenga — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haugesund lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2020, ended 2–1 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 48% versus Valerenga 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 58% | Valerenga 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.64 xG and Valerenga 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.121 / defence 0.754 | Valerenga attack 1.230 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.139. Valerenga have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Haugesund's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Haugesund games / 43 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 49% | Draw 28% | Valerenga 23%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Valerenga 4.35. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 30% | Valerenga 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 49% | Draw 28% | Valerenga 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Haugesund 1.64 / Valerenga 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.121 / def 0.754 | Valerenga attack 1.230 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Valerenga xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Valerenga kick off?
Haugesund vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Haugesund 3 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Haugesund vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Valerenga part of?
Haugesund vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 49% chance of winning, Valerenga a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Haugesund and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 0 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (1.23x) against Haugesund's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 40/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.51
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.69
1.06
Valerenga xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
4%
22.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.06 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund's recent record stands at 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 6L across 40 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 10W 4D 5L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Valerenga's away record stands at 7W 7D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.78 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 70%.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 19W 15D 6L in their last 40 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Valerenga away?
Haugesund's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.79 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Valerenga in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haugesund
3
Draws
5
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Valerenga have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 42%, Valerenga 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Haugesund) and 47% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Valerenga in 32%; Haugesund have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Haugesund's recent matches and 63% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Haugesund's recent games and 47% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Valerenga tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Valerenga 3-1 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.64 xG and Valerenga 1.06 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.12 / defence 0.75 against Valerenga attack 1.23 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 49% | Draw 28% | Valerenga 23%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 58%, Valerenga 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Valerenga's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Valerenga (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.