Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 38%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Bodo/Glimt at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjondalen's home record at Consto Arena: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjondalen, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2020, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mjondalen trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 40% versus Bodo/Glimt 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mjondalen 43% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.56 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.925 / defence 0.941 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.181 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Mjondalen games / 30 Bodo/Glimt games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 38% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 30% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 38% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Mjondalen 1.56 / Bodo/Glimt 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.925 / def 0.941 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.181 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Bodo/Glimt xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 38% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.79
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
3.06
1.50
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.50 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 2D 19L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 26W 3D 1L from 30 games, 2.70 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (6W 0D 9L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 11W 3D 1L from 15 away games — 2.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.20 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Mjondalen or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2021, when Mjondalen 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, Bodo/Glimt 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Mjondalen and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Mjondalen's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Mjondalen's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.56 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.50 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.18 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 38% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, Bodo/Glimt 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.