Molde 4-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Molde face Mjondalen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Molde host Mjondalen at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aker Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Molde have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Molde, 0 for Mjondalen and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Molde in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 64% versus Mjondalen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 81% | Mjondalen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.26 xG and Mjondalen 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.464 / defence 1.052 | Mjondalen attack 0.891 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.847 / away 1.267. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.464 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Molde games / 47 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 60% | Draw 23% | Mjondalen 17%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Mjondalen 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Molde (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Molde 50% | Mjondalen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 60% | Draw 23% | Mjondalen 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Molde 2.26 / Mjondalen 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.464 / def 1.052 | Mjondalen attack 0.891 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.847 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Molde (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Mjondalen xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Mjondalen kick off?
Molde vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Mjondalen?
Molde 4 - 0 Mjondalen.
Where is Molde vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Mjondalen part of?
Molde vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 60% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Molde and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): Molde 2W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Molde and Mjondalen in?
Molde (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Molde's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.42
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Molde xG
Total xG
3.45
1.19
Mjondalen xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
10%
9.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
2%
55.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Molde and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Molde and 1.19 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Molde have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 30W 5D 12L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen's form line: 11W 9D 27L from 47 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.50 PPG from 22 outings (18W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 2.02 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 3W 6D 13L from 22 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.04 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 30W 5D 12L in their last 47 games (2.02 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 9D 27L in their last 47 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Mjondalen away?
Molde's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.50 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Molde won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Molde
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Molde have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Molde 4-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Mjondalen?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 59%, Mjondalen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Molde and 41% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mjondalen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Molde's games and 59% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Molde's matches and 41% of Mjondalen's.
Do Molde and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Mjondalen 4-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.26 xG and Mjondalen 1.19 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mjondalen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.46 / defence 1.05 against Mjondalen attack 0.89 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 60% | Draw 23% | Mjondalen 17%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 81%, Mjondalen 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Molde (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.