Lillestrom 3-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lillestrom face Stabaek.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stabaek make the trip to Åråsen Stadion to face Lillestrom in Eliteserien (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lillestrom's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lillestrom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Lillestrom against 0.90 for Stabaek. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Lillestrom, 0 for Stabaek and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2021, ended Lillestrom 3–2 Stabaek — a Lillestrom win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 70% and Stabaek 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 61% | Stabaek 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.36 xG and Stabaek 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.708 / defence 1.016 | Stabaek attack 1.130 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.274. Lillestrom's attack rating of 0.708 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.36. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 23 games and Stabaek's last 53.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 33% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 38%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.05 | Draw 3.38 | Stabaek 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lillestrom's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 50% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 24 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 33% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Lillestrom 1.36 / Stabaek 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.708 / def 1.016 | Stabaek attack 1.130 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Stabaek xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lillestrom vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does Lillestrom vs Stabaek kick off?
Lillestrom vs Stabaek kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Lillestrom 3 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is Lillestrom vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Stabaek part of?
Lillestrom vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 24) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 33% chance of winning, Stabaek a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lillestrom and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lillestrom vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.71x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.13x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from Lillestrom's last 23 games and Stabaek's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.38
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.82
1.46
Stabaek xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lillestrom vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.46 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 5D 8L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 0.78 PPG from 23 outings (4W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lillestrom's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across their last 11 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 11 away games (2W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.17 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Stabaek in 61%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
Lillestrom (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lillestrom
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Lillestrom vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are Lillestrom and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 6D 13L in their last 23 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Stabaek away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.55 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Lillestrom and Stabaek, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 8 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won Lillestrom 3-0 Stabaek on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lillestrom
0
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Lillestrom vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stabaek?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lillestrom have won 3, Stabaek have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 October 2023: Stabaek 1-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Stabaek?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Lillestrom, 82% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Lillestrom and 82% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lillestrom vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lillestrom and Stabaek matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lillestrom's games and 82% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lillestrom and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Lillestrom's matches and 82% of Stabaek's.
Do Lillestrom and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 91% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Stabaek 3-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.36 xG and Stabaek 1.46 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stabaek landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.71 / defence 1.02 against Stabaek attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 33% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 38%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 61%, Stabaek 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Stabaek's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.