Haugesund vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Lillestrom travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Haugesund Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Lillestrom have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.00 PPG, Lillestrom 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Haugesund, 2 for Lillestrom and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 50% versus Lillestrom 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 67% | Lillestrom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.31 xG and Lillestrom 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.124 / defence 0.931 | Lillestrom attack 1.133 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.219. Data: 54 Haugesund games / 24 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 58% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 19%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Lillestrom 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 40% | Lillestrom 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 58% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Haugesund 2.31 / Lillestrom 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.124 / def 0.931 | Lillestrom attack 1.133 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Lillestrom xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Lillestrom kick off?
Haugesund vs Lillestrom kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Lillestrom part of?
Haugesund vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 58% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Haugesund and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 2W.
What form are Haugesund and Lillestrom in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.12x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.35
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.59
1.29
Lillestrom xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
10%
10.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
2%
53.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.29 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 9W 5D 10L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 11W 5D 8L from 24 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.33 PPG, Lillestrom on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 2.17 PPG from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 5W 3D 4L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.54 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 11W 5D 8L in their last 24 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Lillestrom away?
Haugesund's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 2.17 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Lillestrom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Lillestrom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Haugesund
0
Draws
6
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Lillestrom have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 42%, Lillestrom 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Haugesund and 75% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Haugesund's games and 83% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Haugesund's matches and 75% of Lillestrom's.
Do Haugesund and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.31 xG and Lillestrom 1.29 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Lillestrom attack 1.13 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 58% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 19%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 67%, Lillestrom 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.33 PPG, Lillestrom 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.