Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Alfheim Stadion to face Tromso in Eliteserien (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 02:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Tromso have posted 0W 4D 5L from their last 9 home games — 0.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.44 lags behind their overall 1.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.10 PPG clear of Tromso over their recent games (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 65% versus Bodo/Glimt 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 60% | Bodo/Glimt 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.01 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.717 / defence 1.291 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.164 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.331. Tromso's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.782, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Tromso's projected output down. Tromso's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from Tromso's last 20 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 50.
Result probabilities: Tromso 16% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 58%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 6.08 | Draw 3.92 | Bodo/Glimt 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tromso's last 9 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tromso 78% (last 9 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 24 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 16% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Tromso 1.01 / Bodo/Glimt 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.717 / def 1.291 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.164 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Bodo/Glimt xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
Where is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 24) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 16% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tromso and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tromso's attack at 0.72x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.16x) against Tromso's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 20 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
16%
6.08
25%
3.92
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.01
2.00
Bodo/Glimt xG
6.08
16%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
2%
44.95
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Tromso and 2.00 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 7D 9L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tromso's home form reads 0W 4D 5L across their last 9 home games, a 0.44 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.95 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 1.89 points per game from their last 9 away games (5W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.05 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Tromso (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 12W 5D 3L in their last 20 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 0.44 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Tromso or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tromso
3
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Tromso 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Tromso, 56% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Tromso) and 44% (Bodo/Glimt).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Tromso's games and 56% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Tromso's recent games and 44% of Bodo/Glimt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Tromso's recent matches and 44% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Tromso and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.01 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.00 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.72 / defence 1.29 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.16 / defence 0.78, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 16% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 58%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 60%, Bodo/Glimt 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.