Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Alfheim Stadion to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Tromso have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 0W 4D 5L at Alfheim Stadion — 0.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.44 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Alfheim Stadion this season.

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodo/Glimt's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.10 PPG clear of Tromso in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tromso lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 65% versus Bodo/Glimt 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 60% | Bodo/Glimt 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.01 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.717 / defence 1.291 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.164 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.331. Tromso's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 20 Tromso games / 50 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tromso 16% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 58%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Bodo/Glimt 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 78% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights