Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 39%, yet in-form Kristiansund BK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kristiansund BK make the trip to Consto Arena to face Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Mjondalen (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's home record at Consto Arena: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kristiansund BK's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kristiansund BK are 1.40 PPG clear of Mjondalen in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.80 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjondalen lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjondalen 54% and Kristiansund BK 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 48% | Kristiansund BK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.38 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.772 / defence 1.057 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.826 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.331. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Mjondalen games / 50 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 39% | Draw 32% | Kristiansund BK 29%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Kristiansund BK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kristiansund BK (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 80% | Kristiansund BK 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 39% | Draw 32% | Kristiansund BK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Mjondalen 1.38 / Kristiansund BK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.772 / def 1.057 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.826 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Kristiansund BK xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 39% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.77) and Kristiansund BK's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.83x) against Mjondalen's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
39%
2.55
32%
3.13
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Kristiansund BK xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.16 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 11W 10D 29L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 23W 14D 13L from 50 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kristiansund BK are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (7W 4D 14L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 8W 9D 8L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.70 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 11W 10D 29L in their last 50 games (0.86 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Kristiansund BK's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.00 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 5-0 on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjondalen
1
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2021, when Mjondalen 5-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 52%, Kristiansund BK 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mjondalen) and 64% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Mjondalen's games and 68% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Mjondalen's matches and 64% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.38 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.77 / defence 1.06 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 39% | Draw 32% | Kristiansund BK 29%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 48%, Kristiansund BK 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.