Viking vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Haugesund travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Viking — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 6W 2D 2L at SR-Bank Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Viking 1.60 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Haugesund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Viking, 1 for Haugesund and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 2–4 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Viking in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 70% and Haugesund 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 78% | Haugesund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.44 xG and Haugesund 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.173 / defence 1.193 | Haugesund attack 1.148 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.331. Data: 50 Viking games / 50 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 50% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 28%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 3.57. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.26. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.26 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.26 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 78% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 90% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 50% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 78% | xG Viking 2.44 / Haugesund 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.173 / def 1.193 | Haugesund attack 1.148 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Viking (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Haugesund xG
78%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Haugesund kick off?
Viking vs Haugesund kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Haugesund part of?
Viking vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 50% chance of winning, Haugesund a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Viking and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Viking and Haugesund in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Viking's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.44. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
50%
1.98
22%
4.56
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Viking xG
Total xG
4.26
1.82
Haugesund xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.51
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
9%
11.44
Win to Nil
8%
12.27
2%
41.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Viking and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Viking and 1.82 for Haugesund, a combined total of 4.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking's recent record stands at 21W 13D 16L from 50 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 21L across 50 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.52 PPG, Haugesund on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Viking have managed 13W 6D 6L from 25 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.42 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 21W 13D 16L in their last 50 games (1.52 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 10D 21L in their last 50 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Haugesund away?
Viking's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.80 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Viking
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Haugesund?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 76%, Haugesund at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Viking and 60% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Viking's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Viking's matches and 60% of Haugesund's.
Do Viking and Haugesund tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Viking and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.44 xG and Haugesund 1.82 xG, a combined 4.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.17 / defence 1.19 against Haugesund attack 1.15 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 50% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 28%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 78%, Haugesund 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.52 PPG, Haugesund 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.