Viking 5-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lillestrom make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Viking's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Viking register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Lillestrom in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Viking lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 3–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 32% of cases; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 82% and Lillestrom 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 82% | Lillestrom 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.96 xG and Lillestrom 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.139 / defence 1.169 | Lillestrom attack 1.179 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.250. Data: 52 Viking games / 22 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 33%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Lillestrom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 90% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG Viking 1.96 / Lillestrom 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.139 / def 1.169 | Lillestrom attack 1.179 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Viking (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Lillestrom xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Lillestrom kick off?
Viking vs Lillestrom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Lillestrom?
Viking 5 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Viking vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Lillestrom part of?
Viking vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 42% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Viking and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Viking and Lillestrom in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Viking's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.18x) against Viking's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.99
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Viking xG
Total xG
3.69
1.72
Lillestrom xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
8%
13.23
5%
21.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Viking and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Viking and 1.72 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 11W 5D 6L from 22 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 7L across 22 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Viking against 1.59 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 7W 2D 2L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.50 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 11W 5D 6L in their last 22 games (1.73 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Lillestrom away?
Viking's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.09 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Viking
0
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Viking have won 7, Lillestrom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Lillestrom?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 91% for Viking, 82% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Viking and 73% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 91% of Viking's games and 82% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Viking's matches and 73% of Lillestrom's.
Do Viking and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Lillestrom 5-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.96 xG and Lillestrom 1.72 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.14 / defence 1.17 against Lillestrom attack 1.18 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 42% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 33%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 82%, Lillestrom 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.73 PPG, Lillestrom 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. Lillestrom (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.