Stabaek 0-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Molde (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Stabaek face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Molde meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Molde's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Molde are 0.60 PPG clear of Stabaek over their recent games (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Molde, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Jun 2021, ended Stabaek 1–2 Molde — a Molde win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Molde have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 56% versus Molde 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 60% | Molde 81%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stabaek surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Molde have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.00 xG and Molde 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.655 / defence 1.280 | Molde attack 1.152 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.805 / away 1.242. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.655 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Stabaek's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Molde's projected output up. Data: built from Stabaek's last 52 games and Molde's last 52.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Molde 55%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 5.52 | Draw 3.68 | Molde 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Molde (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stabaek 40% (last 10 home games) | Molde 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 23 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Molde 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Stabaek 1.00 / Molde 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.655 / def 1.280 | Molde attack 1.152 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.805 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Molde (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Molde xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Molde FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Molde kick off?
Stabaek vs Molde kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Stabaek 0 - 3 Molde.
Where is Stabaek vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Molde part of?
Stabaek vs Molde is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 23) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 18% chance of winning, Molde a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stabaek and Molde will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stabaek vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.66) and Molde's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.15x) against Stabaek's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 52 games and Molde's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
18%
5.52
27%
3.68
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.83
1.83
Molde xG
5.52
18%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
3%
34.51
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Molde Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.83 for Molde, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Molde?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 18D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Molde sit at 2.04 PPG from 52 outings (33W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stabaek's home form reads 7W 9D 10L across their last 26 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 26 away games (12W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.52 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 63%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Molde
Blended
Stabaek (Home) vs Molde (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Stabaek vs Molde Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Molde in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 13W 18D 21L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Molde have gone 33W 7D 12L in their last 52 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.15 PPG; Molde away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Molde in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Stabaek and Molde, the earliest from June 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 29 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won Molde 4-1 Stabaek on 28 Jun 2020, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
5
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Molde H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 1, Molde have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Molde last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 July 2023: Stabaek 0-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 42%, Molde 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Stabaek and 77% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Molde Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Molde matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Stabaek's games and 73% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stabaek and Molde matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Stabaek's matches and 77% of Molde's.
Do Stabaek and Molde matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Stabaek's recent matches and 77% of Molde's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Stabaek 0-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.00 xG and Molde 1.83 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.66 / defence 1.28 against Molde attack 1.15 / defence 0.84, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Molde 55%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 60%, Molde 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.