Aalesund 2-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lillestrom make the trip to Color Line Stadion to face Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Aalesund's home record at Color Line Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lillestrom (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lillestrom's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Aalesund, 1 for Lillestrom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Lillestrom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 50% versus Lillestrom 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 57% | Lillestrom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 0.87 xG and Lillestrom 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.626 / defence 0.901 | Lillestrom attack 1.048 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.411. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lillestrom's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Aalesund games / 58 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 25% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 47%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Lillestrom 2.13. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Aalesund 60% | Lillestrom 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 25% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Aalesund 0.87 / Lillestrom 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.626 / def 0.901 | Lillestrom attack 1.048 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Lillestrom xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Lillestrom kick off?
Aalesund vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Aalesund 2 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Aalesund vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Lillestrom part of?
Aalesund vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 25% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Aalesund and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Aalesund and Lillestrom in?
Aalesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.05x) against Aalesund's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
25%
4.07
28%
3.56
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.21
1.33
Lillestrom xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
15.45
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.7 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.33 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Aalesund have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 9W 8D 11L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Lillestrom's form line: 15W 5D 8L from 28 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 4L from 14 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aalesund are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.61 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 15W 5D 8L in their last 28 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.43 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 5-1 on 19 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Aalesund
1
Draws
3
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Lillestrom?
From 5 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Lillestrom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Aalesund 1-3 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 57%, Lillestrom 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Aalesund and 71% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Aalesund's games and 64% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Aalesund's matches and 71% of Lillestrom's.
Do Aalesund and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Lillestrom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Lillestrom 2-1 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 0.87 xG and Lillestrom 1.33 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aalesund beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.63 / defence 0.90 against Lillestrom attack 1.05 / defence 0.79, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 25% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 47%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Aalesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 57%, Lillestrom 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Aalesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.