ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 38%, yet in-form Lillestrom provide a compelling counter-argument — this ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Lillestrom travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Skagerak Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Lillestrom have posted 4W 3D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Lillestrom's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 1 for Lillestrom and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Lillestrom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 56% and Lillestrom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 61% | Lillestrom 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.68 xG and Lillestrom 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.020 / defence 1.108 | Lillestrom attack 1.147 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.269. Data: 48 ODD Ballklubb games / 18 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 38% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 35%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Lillestrom 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lillestrom (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Lillestrom 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 38% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.68 / Lillestrom 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.020 / def 1.108 | Lillestrom attack 1.147 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Lillestrom xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 38% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.02x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.69
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.29
1.61
Lillestrom xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.61 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 6W 5D 7L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 9W 4D 5L from 18 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ODD Ballklubb.
Venue Form
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — ODD Ballklubb are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.75 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Lillestrom won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 62%, Lillestrom at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for ODD Ballklubb and 62% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 75% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 62% of Lillestrom's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 22, as ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.68 xG and Lillestrom 1.61 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Lillestrom attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 38% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 35%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 61%, Lillestrom 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.