Aalesund 1-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aalesund at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Aalesund welcome Sandefjord to Color Line Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Aalesund have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Color Line Stadion, Aalesund have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandefjord — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Aalesund carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Aalesund, 2 for Sandefjord and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 54% and Sandefjord 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 58% | Sandefjord 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.51 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.639 / defence 0.987 | Sandefjord attack 0.831 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.389. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Aalesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Aalesund games / 56 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 46% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 29%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 3.45. Aalesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Sandefjord lead the H2H ledger, but Aalesund carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aalesund at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aalesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 70% | Sandefjord 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 46% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Aalesund 1.51 / Sandefjord 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.639 / def 0.987 | Sandefjord attack 0.831 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sandefjord xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Sandefjord kick off?
Aalesund vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Aalesund 1 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Aalesund vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Sandefjord part of?
Aalesund vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 46% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aalesund and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sandefjord?
Record (3 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Sandefjord in?
Aalesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.64) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.91
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.65
1.14
Sandefjord xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
6%
15.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.14 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aalesund's recent record stands at 8W 8D 10L from 26 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 15L across 26 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 1.23 PPG, Sandefjord on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 4W 5D 4L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 5W 0D 8L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Aalesund are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.46 scored and 2.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 6W 5D 15L in their last 26 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Sandefjord away?
Aalesund's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.31 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Sandefjord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Aalesund
1
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sandefjord?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Sandefjord have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sandefjord 1-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 62%, Sandefjord 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Aalesund and 92% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sandefjord in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Aalesund's recent matches and 46% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Aalesund's matches and 92% of Sandefjord's.
Do Aalesund and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aalesund edge out Sandefjord 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Sandefjord 1-0 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.51 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.64 / defence 0.99 against Sandefjord attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 46% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 29%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 58%, Sandefjord 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.23 PPG, Sandefjord 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aalesund win broke the near-deadlock. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.