Sandefjord 0-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 45%, yet in-form Tromso provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Tromso at Release Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Release Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Release Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Tromso have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tromso are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sandefjord, 1 for Tromso and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with Tromso winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Tromso in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 62% and Tromso 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 73% | Tromso 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.59 xG and Tromso 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.989 / defence 1.154 | Tromso attack 1.023 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.078. Data: 31 Sandefjord games / 31 Tromso games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 45% | Draw 25% | Tromso 31%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Tromso 3.23. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tromso (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 80% | Tromso 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 45% | Draw 25% | Tromso 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Sandefjord 1.59 / Tromso 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.989 / def 1.154 | Tromso attack 1.023 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Tromso xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Tromso kick off?
Sandefjord vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Tromso?
Sandefjord 0 - 0 Tromso.
Where is Sandefjord vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Tromso part of?
Sandefjord vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 45% chance of winning, Tromso a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sandefjord and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Tromso?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 2 | Tromso 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Tromso in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Tromso (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.07
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.86
1.27
Tromso xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
6%
16.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.27 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 16W 12D 32L from 60 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 18L across 60 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.00 PPG, Tromso on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 8W 11D 11L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tromso's away record stands at 7W 13D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.32 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Tromso in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Tromso in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 16W 12D 32L in their last 60 games (1.00 PPG), while Tromso have gone 18W 24D 18L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Tromso away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.17 PPG; Tromso away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Tromso runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Tromso won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
3
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Tromso have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Tromso 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 70%, Tromso at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sandefjord and 53% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sandefjord's games and 67% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 53% of Tromso's.
Do Sandefjord and Tromso tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Tromso in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.59 xG and Tromso 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Tromso attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 45% | Draw 25% | Tromso 31%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 73%, Tromso 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.00 PPG, Tromso 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.