Ham-Kam 1-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.53 xG and Rosenborg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.935 / defence 0.859 | Rosenborg attack 0.884 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.303. Data: 6 Ham-Kam games / 36 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 24%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 4.17. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Ham-Kam 1.53 / Rosenborg 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.935 / def 0.859 | Rosenborg attack 0.884 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Rosenborg xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Ham-Kam 1 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg part of?
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 50% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ham-Kam and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Rosenborg away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.94) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.88x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.90
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.52
0.99
Rosenborg xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.99 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
Rosenborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 4-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ham-Kam and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and Rosenborg finished level at 1-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.53 xG and Rosenborg 0.99 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Rosenborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.14, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 24%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.