Molde 2-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as Molde welcome Kristiansund BK to Aker Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Molde — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Molde's home record at Aker Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Molde have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Molde, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Kristiansund BK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Molde in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 62% and Kristiansund BK 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 80% | Kristiansund BK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.07 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.281 / defence 1.113 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.661 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.233. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Molde games / 36 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 64% | Draw 20% | Kristiansund BK 16%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Kristiansund BK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Molde (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Molde 50% | Kristiansund BK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 64% | Draw 20% | Kristiansund BK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Molde 2.07 / Kristiansund BK 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.281 / def 1.113 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.661 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Molde (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Molde xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Kristiansund BK xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Molde vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Kristiansund BK?
Molde 2 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Molde vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Molde vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 64% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Molde and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Kristiansund BK?
Record (3 meetings): Molde 1W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Molde and Kristiansund BK in?
Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Molde's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.95
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Molde xG
Total xG
2.98
0.91
Kristiansund BK xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
2%
51.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Molde and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Molde and 0.91 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Molde come into this having played 60 games, going 38W 8D 14L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.57 PPG from 60 outings (26W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Molde's home form reads 23W 3D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.63 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 38W 8D 14L in their last 60 games (2.03 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 26W 16D 18L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Molde's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.40 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Molde or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2024, when Molde won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Molde
1
Draws
3
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 6, Kristiansund BK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Molde 1-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Kristiansund BK?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 57%, Kristiansund BK 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Molde and 67% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Molde's games and 63% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Molde's matches and 67% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Molde and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Kristiansund BK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.07 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.91 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.28 / defence 1.11 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.66 / defence 1.10, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 64% | Draw 20% | Kristiansund BK 16%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 80%, Kristiansund BK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Molde (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.