Rosenborg 3-3 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Haugesund travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 May 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rosenborg 1.10 PPG, Haugesund 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Haugesund in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Rosenborg, 0 for Haugesund and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 62% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 68% | Haugesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.80 xG and Haugesund 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.106 / defence 0.675 | Haugesund attack 1.171 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.302. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.675 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Rosenborg games / 38 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 21%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Haugesund 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Rosenborg 1.80 / Haugesund 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.106 / def 0.675 | Haugesund attack 1.171 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Haugesund xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Haugesund kick off?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 26 May 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Rosenborg 3 - 3 Haugesund.
Where is Rosenborg vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Haugesund part of?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 55% chance of winning, Haugesund a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rosenborg and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.11) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.23
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.83
1.03
Haugesund xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
28.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.03 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 16D 16L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.23 PPG from 60 outings (20W 14D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rosenborg's home form reads 18W 7D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (6W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.42 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Haugesund away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.03 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Rosenborg
3
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 6, Haugesund have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 63%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 57% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 57% of Haugesund's.
Do Rosenborg and Haugesund tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Haugesund share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Haugesund finished level at 3-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.80 xG and Haugesund 1.03 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.11 / defence 0.68 against Haugesund attack 1.17 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 55% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 21%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, Haugesund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.