Sandefjord 1-4 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Lillestrom travel to Release Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord at Release Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Release Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.50 (Lillestrom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for Lillestrom and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Lillestrom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lillestrom trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 53% versus Lillestrom 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 60% | Lillestrom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.28 xG and Lillestrom 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.926 / defence 1.305 | Lillestrom attack 1.152 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.198. Data: 36 Sandefjord games / 37 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 27% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 50%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Lillestrom 2.00. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 27% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Sandefjord 1.28 / Lillestrom 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.926 / def 1.305 | Lillestrom attack 1.152 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Lillestrom xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Sandefjord 1 - 4 Lillestrom.
Where is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom part of?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 27% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sandefjord and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.93) and Lillestrom's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
27%
3.67
23%
4.33
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.08
1.80
Lillestrom xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
4%
22.24
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.80 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 6D 14L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 10W 6D 14L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Lillestrom away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.53 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Lillestrom runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
6
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Lillestrom have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 47%, Lillestrom 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Sandefjord and 73% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sandefjord's games and 80% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Lillestrom's.
Do Sandefjord and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sandefjord 1-4 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.28 xG and Lillestrom 1.80 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lillestrom outscored their 1.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.93 / defence 1.30 against Lillestrom attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 27% | Draw 23% | Lillestrom 50%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 60%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.