jerv 0-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates jerv at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this jerv vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as jerv welcome ODD Ballklubb to J.J. Ugland Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, jerv have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 4.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. jerv have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — jerv at 1.00 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects jerv 1.28 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: jerv attack 0.813 / defence 0.911 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.657 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.234. Data: 6 jerv games / 37 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: jerv 49% | Draw 29% | ODD Ballklubb 22%. Fair-value odds: jerv 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | ODD Ballklubb 4.55. jerv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest ~4.0 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 33% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
On the Poisson output, jerv are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on jerv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 5.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: jerv vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: J.J. Ugland Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: jerv 49% | Draw 29% | ODD Ballklubb 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG jerv 1.28 / ODD Ballklubb 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: jerv attack 0.813 / def 0.911 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.657 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: jerv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
jerv xG
Expected Goals
0.74
ODD Ballklubb xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does jerv vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
jerv vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What was the final score in jerv vs ODD Ballklubb?
jerv 0 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is jerv vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What competition is jerv vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
jerv vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win jerv vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives jerv a 49% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making jerv the favourite.
Will both teams score in jerv vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both jerv and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will jerv vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and ODD Ballklubb?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are jerv and ODD Ballklubb in?
jerv (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 D. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates jerv's attack at 0.81x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus jerv's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
jerv Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.43
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
jerv xG
Total xG
2.01
0.74
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for jerv vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are jerv and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for jerv and 0.74 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for jerv vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
jerv come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for jerv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of jerv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
jerv are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. jerv's scoring rate against ODD Ballklubb's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: jerv have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; ODD Ballklubb in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
jerv
Early Season
ODD Ballklubb
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are jerv and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
jerv have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
jerv
0
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and ODD Ballklubb?
From 2 meetings on record, jerv have won 0, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did jerv and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2022, when ODD Ballklubb 2-1 jerv.
Who has won more matches between jerv and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = jerv home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when jerv play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of jerv's games and 100% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is jerv vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of jerv's matches and 100% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do jerv and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
jerv have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat jerv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat jerv 0-1 at J.J. Ugland Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting jerv 1.28 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.74 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. jerv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of jerv attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.66 / defence 1.07, drawn from 6/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it jerv 49% | Draw 29% | ODD Ballklubb 22%, with jerv to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a ODD Ballklubb win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (jerv 100%, ODD Ballklubb 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. jerv managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.