Viking 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Wednesday 25 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.19 xG and Ham-Kam 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.317 / defence 0.625 | Ham-Kam attack 0.891 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.303. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Viking's defence rating of 0.625 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Viking games / 7 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 71% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 11%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Ham-Kam 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Viking (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 71% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 46% | xG Viking 2.19 / Ham-Kam 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.317 / def 0.625 | Ham-Kam attack 0.891 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Viking (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Ham-Kam xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Viking vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 25 May 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Viking 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Viking vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Ham-Kam part of?
Viking vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 71% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Viking and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Ham-Kam in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Viking home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.32x the league average against Ham-Kam's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.89x) against Viking's defence (0.62x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 39/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.37
11%
9.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Viking xG
Total xG
2.92
0.73
Ham-Kam xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
9.36
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
11%
8.95
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
1%
83.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Viking and 0.73 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Pre-Season
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 7-3 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Viking
2
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Ham-Kam?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Viking and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Viking and Ham-Kam drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.19 xG and Ham-Kam 0.73 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Viking fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.32 / defence 0.62 against Ham-Kam attack 0.89 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 71% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 11%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.