Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 5W 3D 2L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aalesund haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Aalesund's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Sarpsborg 08 FF's favour (1.90 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W, Aalesund 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2020, ended 1–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% and Aalesund 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 57% | Aalesund 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 xG and Aalesund 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.811 / defence 0.852 | Aalesund attack 0.784 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.234. Data: 36 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 7 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 31% | Aalesund 26%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Aalesund 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Aalesund 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 31% | Aalesund 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 / Aalesund 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.811 / def 0.852 | Aalesund attack 0.784 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Aalesund xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 2 Aalesund.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance of winning, Aalesund a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund?
Record (2 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.78x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 36/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.27
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
1.97
0.82
Aalesund xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.82 for Aalesund, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 6D 13L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.37 PPG from 30 outings (2W 5D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. Aalesund haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.33 points per game from 15 outings (1W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.00 scored and 2.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Aalesund in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Aalesund
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 23L in their last 30 (0.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Aalesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.53 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 2 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
Draws
2
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Aalesund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Aalesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 53%, Aalesund 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 73% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 27% of games; Aalesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 53% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 73% of Aalesund's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 xG and Aalesund 0.82 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Aalesund outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Aalesund attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 31% | Aalesund 26%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Aalesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 57%, Aalesund 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.37. Form was overturned, with Aalesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.