Kristiansund BK 0-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 40%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 2 as Kristiansund BK welcome Bodo/Glimt to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kristiansund BK, 1 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2020, ended 2–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 83% and Bodo/Glimt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 70% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.75 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.039 / defence 1.091 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.197 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.210. Data: 31 Kristiansund BK games / 31 Bodo/Glimt games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 40% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 33%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Bodo/Glimt 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 80% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 40% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.75 / Bodo/Glimt 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.039 / def 1.091 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.197 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Bodo/Glimt xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 40% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (1 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.75
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.33
1.58
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.58 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 12W 12D 6L from 30 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 3D 1L across 30 games — 2.70 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 11W 3D 1L across 15 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.07 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.67 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
9
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 80%, Bodo/Glimt at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Kristiansund BK and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kristiansund BK's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Kristiansund BK 0-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.75 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.58 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.04 / defence 1.09 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.20 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 40% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 33%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 70%, Bodo/Glimt 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.