ODD Ballklubb 4-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Aalesund at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 5W 2D 3L at Skagerak Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Aalesund — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — ODD Ballklubb at 1.00 PPG versus Aalesund's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Aalesund 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 3–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 54% versus Aalesund 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 54% | Aalesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.25 xG and Aalesund 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.893 / defence 0.878 | Aalesund attack 0.727 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.451. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 ODD Ballklubb games / 59 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 67% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 14%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Aalesund 7.14. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Aalesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 67% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.25 / Aalesund 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.893 / def 0.878 | Aalesund attack 0.727 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Aalesund xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
ODD Ballklubb 4 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 67% chance of winning, Aalesund a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
Record (5 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 3W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.89) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.37
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.18
0.93
Aalesund xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
11%
9.47
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
1%
67.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.93 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 14D 23L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.97 PPG from 59 outings (15W 12D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.36 PPG, Aalesund on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 14W 5D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.66 points per game from 29 outings (5W 4D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.92 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Aalesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 22W 14D 23L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 15W 12D 32L in their last 59 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Aalesund away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.62 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
ODD Ballklubb go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when ODD Ballklubb 4-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 55%, Aalesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for ODD Ballklubb and 72% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 52% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 72% of Aalesund's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ODD Ballklubb run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Aalesund 4-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.25 xG and Aalesund 0.93 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Aalesund attack 0.73 / defence 1.43, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 67% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 14%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 54%, Aalesund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.36 PPG, Aalesund 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.