Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel plays host to Sparta Rotterdam versus Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heracles (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Heracles away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.00 for Heracles — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 2W, Heracles 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 50% versus Heracles 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Heracles 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.87 xG and Heracles 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.025 / defence 1.077 | Heracles attack 0.678 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.325. Data: 62 Sparta Rotterdam games / 28 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Draw 27% | Heracles 17%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Heracles 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | Heracles 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Draw 27% | Heracles 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.87 / Heracles 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.025 / def 1.077 | Heracles attack 0.678 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Heracles xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 56% chance of winning, Heracles a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 2W | Draws 1 | Heracles 0W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 1.02x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.68x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
56%
1.77
27%
3.76
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.84
0.97
Heracles xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
3%
38.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.97 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 28W 16D 22L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Heracles's form line: 35W 9D 22L from 66 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.73 for Heracles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.52 PPG from 33 outings (14W 8D 11L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 14W 3D 16L from 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.14 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 28W 16D 22L in their last 66 games (1.52 PPG), while Heracles have gone 35W 9D 22L in their last 66 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Heracles away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.52 PPG; Heracles away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Heracles in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heracles won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sparta Rotterdam
3
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 3, Heracles have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 54%, Heracles 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Sparta Rotterdam and 73% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 48% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 73% of Heracles's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Heracles in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.87 xG and Heracles 0.97 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Heracles outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against Heracles attack 0.68 / defence 1.11, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Draw 27% | Heracles 17%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Heracles win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 56%, Heracles 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Heracles's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.52 PPG, Heracles 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.