FC Volendam 3-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host Waalwijk at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Waalwijk — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Volendam, 2 for Waalwijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 63% versus Waalwijk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 66% | Waalwijk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 0.95 xG and Waalwijk 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.583 / defence 1.608 | Waalwijk attack 0.681 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.322. FC Volendam's attack strength of 0.583 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 FC Volendam games / 62 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 22% | Draw 32% | Waalwijk 46%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Waalwijk 2.17. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 40% | Waalwijk 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 22% | Draw 32% | Waalwijk 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Volendam 0.95 / Waalwijk 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.583 / def 1.608 | Waalwijk attack 0.681 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Waalwijk xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Waalwijk kick off?
FC Volendam vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
FC Volendam 3 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk part of?
FC Volendam vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 22% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Volendam and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Waalwijk?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Waalwijk in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.58x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
22%
4.53
32%
3.13
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.40
1.45
Waalwijk xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
5%
19.24
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.45 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 13W 13D 36L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Waalwijk's form line: 17W 14D 31L from 62 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 0.84 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (11W 3D 16L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 7D 19L from 30 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.24 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.21 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 13W 13D 36L in their last 62 games (0.84 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 14D 31L in their last 62 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Waalwijk away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.20 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Waalwijk runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2023, when Waalwijk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
0
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Waalwijk?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when FC Volendam 3-2 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 57%, Waalwijk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 53% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 30% of games; Waalwijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 47% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 53% of Waalwijk's.
Do FC Volendam and Waalwijk tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Waalwijk 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 0.95 xG and Waalwijk 1.45 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.58 / defence 1.61 against Waalwijk attack 0.68 / defence 0.97, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 22% | Draw 32% | Waalwijk 46%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 66%, Waalwijk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 0.84 PPG, Waalwijk 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.